What I Learned Studying the Fed for 10 Years

(And Why I No Longer Believe Them)

May 01, 2025

I read the meeting minutes.

I listened to the press conferences.

I tried to understand what they were signaling, what they were hiding, and how it would affect everything from savings accounts to sovereign debt.

I assumed they were imperfect — but well-intentioned.

I believed their models were flawed — but evolving. I thought, at worst, they were navigating a hard job with limited tools.

I don’t believe that anymore.

The Real Job of the Fed Isn’t What You Think

The official mandate is well known: price stability and maximum employment.

But in practice, the Fed’s true job is something much more subtle — and much more dangerous:

They manage confidence in a system that increasingly runs on illusion.

They don’t need to be right. They don’t need to be consistent. They just need you to believe things are under control.

  • Inflation spikes, they soothe.

  • Banks wobble, they reassure.

  • Debt explodes, they shift the narrative.

They don’t predict the future — they massage the present.

The Game Behind the Curtain

Here’s what studying the Fed taught me — not from what they say, but from what they do:

  • They bluff more than they act. Just the threat of rate hikes can be as powerful as doing it.

  • They don’t admit uncertainty. Even when their models are wrong, they must project control — or risk panic.

  • They protect the system, not the saver. If it’s your purchasing power vs. the stability of the banking system, guess which one gets sacrificed.

  • They believe inflation is a tool. Quiet, controlled inflation helps erode debt — and you take the hit while they call it “transitory.”

So What Do You Do?

If the Fed is bluffing and backpedaling, how do you actually protect yourself?

Simple: Don’t play their game.

  • Own real assets. Not promises, not paper. Land, gold, productive businesses — things that don't evaporate with monetary mistakes.

  • Watch their actions, not their words. When they say “everything’s fine” but reintroduce emergency funding, believe the bailout — not the press release.

  • Understand their incentives. They serve the system. You serve your family. Never confuse the two.

The Bottom Line

After 10 years of study, I’ve stopped listening to what the Fed says. I watch what they’re afraid of.

Because — a system built on confidence can collapse on doubt alone.

That’s why they’ll do anything to keep you believing.

Even if it means lying — with a straight face and a steady hand.

So no — I no longer believe them.

And I sleep better because of it.

Until next time,
Death of the Dollar