The One Chart That Moves When the Fed Starts Lying

May 29, 2025

Bitcoin doesn’t spike because inflation is high.

It spikes when enough people stop believing inflation is low.

It’s not a hedge against prices rising — it’s a hedge against institutional credibility collapsing.

That’s why you’ll often see Bitcoin surge right after the Fed says something “reassuring.”

Or when CPI comes in “lower than expected.”

Or when Powell claims the U.S. fiscal path is “sustainable.”

Because those moments don’t restore confidence — they test it.

And Bitcoin reacts to that test like a polygraph needle under pressure.

The 3 triggers Bitcoin responds to (that have nothing to do with Bitcoin)

1) Policy Panic – When the Fed pivots too fast, cuts too deep, or flips direction without logic, Bitcoin rallies. It’s not responding to rates — it’s responding to panic behind the curtain.

2) Data Distortion – From “core” inflation to hedonic adjustments, the public’s getting wise to the manipulation game. Every time official numbers sound too perfect, Bitcoin moves like it caught someone lying on the stand.

3) Debt Delusion – When Treasury auctions go soft or when the Fed is the buyer of last resort (again), Bitcoin doesn’t care about the bond math. It cares about the fact that no one wants to hold U.S. debt without a wink and a bribe.

This isn’t about crypto. It’s about narrative collapse.

Bitcoin doesn’t need to “win” to be useful.

Its movements are messy, speculative, and often dumb. But what makes it fascinating is this:

It trades on disbelief.

And disbelief is rising.

What happens when the lie detector stays in the red?

This isn’t about price targets. It’s about trend signals.

The more Bitcoin reacts to central bank jawboning, staged data, or manufactured optimism, the more you should be asking:

  • What system are investors trying to escape?

  • Why are they so eager to believe in something outside of it?

  • And what happens when they’re not the minority anymore?

Until next time,
—Death of the Dollar