The Most Powerful Currency on Earth Can’t Survive a Personality Cult

The Dollar Needs Stability. Trump Needs Chaos.

May 16, 2025

Reserve status doesn’t come from strength.

It comes from trust:

  • Trust in America’s institutions.

  • Trust in its political stability.

  • Trust that when other systems break down, the U.S. stays boring, predictable, safe.

But what happens when that trust is tied to one man—and most of the country doesn’t trust him anymore?

The Dollar Needs Stability. Trump Needs Chaos.

This is the contradiction at the center of today’s financial system.

Donald Trump is not a policy-first candidate. He’s not a systems guy. He doesn’t speak in frameworks or long-term fiscal models.

He speaks in headlines.

And as of April 2025, over 60% of Americans disapprove of his leadership.

That number is even higher among U.S. allies abroad.

At the same time, Trump has re-entered the public stage with increasing force—threatening to overhaul the Fed, reimpose sweeping tariffs, and punish political enemies using the Treasury.

This isn’t just an election problem.

It’s a currency credibility problem.

Markets Aren’t Waiting for November

Behind closed doors, markets are moving.

  • The BRICS bloc is testing gold-for-oil swaps

  • Central banks are reducing Treasury exposure

  • Foreign investors are shifting out of U.S. debt faster than anytime since 2011

  • The Swiss National Bank has quietly slashed its dollar reserves for the fifth quarter in a row

These aren’t political statements. They’re confidence trades.

Because when institutions act like reality TV shows, capital exits the set.

What Happens When the Fed Is No Longer Independent?

In 2019, Trump repeatedly berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates fast enough.

Now, he's suggested the Fed should be “answering to the president,” and has floated appointing loyalists to influence monetary decisions directly.

“Powell doesn’t know what he’s doing. The Fed needs to get in line.”

— Trump, Fox Business, May 2025

That’s not oversight. That’s institutional capture.

And for global investors watching from Frankfurt, Shanghai, or Riyadh, it sends one message loud and clear:

The world’s most trusted currency is becoming politically contaminated.

A Reserve Currency Requires Restraint—Not Spectacle

The British pound lost its global status not in war, but in decay—slowly, over decades, as its empire crumbled and leadership credibility eroded.

If the dollar falls, it will fall the same way.

Not with a crash—but with a quiet shift. With a thousand cuts, not one blow.

Trump’s cult of personality may energize a base.

But it can’t stabilize a bond market.

It can’t anchor trade deals. And it sure as hell can’t serve as a neutral store of value for the other 190 countries on the planet.

So Here’s the Real Risk No One’s Pricing In

It’s not inflation. It’s not interest rates. It’s not even debt.

It’s confidence.

And confidence is breaking.

Not because America failed. But because one man made every institution about himself.

And the most powerful currency on Earth can’t survive that kind of gravity…

Until next time,
Death of the Dollar