- The Death of the Dollar
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- Forget CPI. M2 is the Number That Really Moves Your Money
Forget CPI. M2 is the Number That Really Moves Your Money
CPI tells you what already happened.
M2 tells you what’s coming next.
It’s the money circulating in the system — cash, checking, savings, money markets.
AKA: the fuel behind spending, borrowing, investing, and speculation.
And right now, M2 isn’t shrinking like many think.
It’s growing.
The Quiet Liquidity That Keeps the Game Going
M2 is up about 4–5% over the past year.
It’s no longer surging like it did in 2020–2021, but it’s still expanding — and it’s still well above pre-pandemic levels.
That quiet growth is what keeps asset prices supported, debt rolling over, and markets calm, even as inflation appears to cool.
But don’t mistake that calm for safety.
Where the Real Risk Hides
M2 growth alone doesn’t trigger inflation.
The real danger comes when velocity — how fast money moves — starts rising alongside M2.
Right now, velocity is low. That’s kept inflation contained.
But if velocity picks up while the money supply stays elevated?
That’s when inflation can reappear and catch everyone off guard.
Wall Street loves this setup.
Quiet liquidity lets them keep leveraging, rolling debt, and inflating asset prices.
But when the tide shifts, it’s not Wall Street that takes the hit. It’s ordinary investors left exposed.
This quiet M2 growth also props up the dollar’s status worldwide. But it’s a fragile balance.
If we keep creating money faster than we create real value — or if confidence snaps — the dollar’s safe-haven status can erode quickly.
What to Watch
M2 growth: If it accelerates sharply, it’s a warning sign.
Velocity: Any rebound is your early alert that inflation could reignite.
Credit stress: Tighter lending or rising defaults signal the liquidity tide may be turning.
Bottom line:
CPI looks backward.
M2 tells you what’s coming.
Now you’re watching the number that really moves your money.
—Death of the Dollar